According to statistics, China imported 1. 15 million tons of cotton in 2017, including 50.
530000 tons from the United States, accounting for more than 44%.
Tariffs news, cotton market prices and unrest.
As a trade war intensifies, the cotton price system will also change.
The most obvious is that tariffs on imports of cotton directly influence, after to raise tariffs, quotas of cotton imported within the tax rate from 1% to 26%, the corresponding import costs will directly increase 3500 yuan/tons.
Therefore, tariff is obvious to the promotion of cotton import costs.
In this case, the imported American cotton is apparently not cost-effective, so many FangQi and cotton traders looking to India.
A trade war begins in earnest!
American cotton import advantage no longer, who will host the cotton market in China?
According to cotton association of India, India has signed with China 500000 packets of export orders of the crop, the lock ahead of supply of goods is very rare.
A Indian cotton exporters also revealed that the recent company received many inquiry from China to India for the next fiscal year cotton has been signed and China in early June this year 11 ~ 12 months the cotton export orders for shipment.
Some international cotton traders and Indian exporters, as bilateral trade dispute upgrades, India cotton exports on the 'fast track', China's more positive on cotton import quotas, China cotton importer has a strong interest in the international market with high quality cotton purchase, especially high quality S -
6, MCU5, J34 is part of China's large and medium-sized FangQi attention and favor.
Indian cotton association, investment institutions, the cotton enterprises believe that because of the influence of sino-us trade dispute intensified, Chinese cotton imports will be forced to find other varieties instead of American cotton, cotton export orders in India will surge, 2018/2019 Indian cotton exports to China soared to 5 million packages, about 850000 tons, the 2017/2018 annual turn over five times.
On the premise of American cotton import duties were imposed on China, India, cotton will have the opportunity to occupy more market share in China, as China FangQi, traders add cotton resources of choice.
To this, the analysis of the personage inside course of study, stimulate Indian cotton short sell because in addition to the influence of a trade war with China, there are the following three points: one is on June 14, the Chinese government to raise the 800000 tons of sliding quasi cotton import tariff quotas, all for the state-run trade quotas, cotton imports of the initiative, the decision of foreign enterprises have improved;
Two is mid-may to mid-june, ICE cotton futures lead American cotton, Australian cotton and Brazil cotton, African cotton such as spot prices rise, the price advantage of the Indian cotton is more outstanding;
, according to data on July 2, imports of cotton price rose slightly, among them, the E/MOT cotton delivery price for 15436.
87 yuan/ton, the Australian cotton delivery price for 16651.
77 yuan/ton, India's cotton price of 14769 to pick up the goods.
Three is the substantial depreciation of the rupee recently, our country enterprise decline in the cost of imports;
Plus India cotton relative to American cotton, cotton, such as African cotton have short transport distance, low freight, fast delivery advantages, therefore present a tendency of short 'blowout' exports to China.
Assured India cotton export cotton supply and demand in China is not optimistic now, India cotton import showed a trend of growth in the industry has reached a consensus, but how many, how long is the growth growth in addition to the affected by the factors of China and the United States is influenced by many factors, India cotton exports not blindly optimistic.
The personage inside course of study thinks, the first is India cotton 2018/2019 the number of available for export.
Cotton association, USDA and other parties feedback from India, India cotton planting area in 2018 will decline 10% ~ 13%, and southwest monsoon delay arrival, 2018/2019 of the annual production of cotton in India is not optimistic;
Plus India in recent years the domestic to high quality, high grade, high consistency cotton consumption demand rapid growth, S - available for export
6, MCU, J34 or less than 1 million tons, the USDA forecast 2018/2019 Indian cotton production and export of 620 respectively.
50000 tons, 92.
If 50000 tons, 850000 tons of cotton exports to China, so countries such as Bangladesh, Pakistan, Turkey mills raw material problem and how to solve?
Second, India prices are competitive enough.
Sino-us trade friction upgrades for Indian cotton opportunities in China's export, but also to Africa, Brazil, Australia, central Asia cotton with cotton, cotton etc preempted the timing of the cotton market share, if you don't refer to the ICE, India cotton CNF, independent pricing FOB quotation no advantage than other producing area of cotton and even form upside down, I'm afraid the Chinese buyers also carefully place an order.
Since June 20, such as, ICE, cotton spot prices fell sharply, outside India cotton prices only symbolic callback, price decline significantly.
Once again, China's cotton supply 2018/2019 market variables.
On the one hand, in 2018/2019, the domestic cotton output can reach 6 million ~ 6. 2 million tons, will determine the degree of dependence on imports of cotton;
On the other hand, with the transformation and upgrading of China's FangQi, FangQi will focus on purchasing high quality, high external cotton spinnability, India for export cotton and what proportion of FangQi need?
A multinational company in Beijing, traders had said China would first purchase machine mining, pollution-free, Australian cotton and Brazil cotton to replace the cotton before he would consider India cotton, because India cotton impurity rate is high.
But if there is no other choice, China will spend more money to deal with cotton, because even with the cost, also than extra pay 25% import tariff to buy American cotton to bargain.
So now together, said India cotton can replace American cotton, seizing market share of the American cotton premature, India cotton exports also cannot blind optimistic.
Step back, the sino-us trade dispute is a 'protracted war', still have considerable variations, tariff policy for home textiles
enterprises, should be a rational look at market fluctuations, in cotton prices were low when strategic inventory, to ensure normal production.
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